Will your savings last?
For nearly half who retire at 65, no.
Income that lasts for life is the best protection. Feds with a pension start with an edge.
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1. The headline numbers
Morningstar’s Center for Retirement and Policy Studies ran a model of U.S. retirement outcomes, published in July 2024. Its central finding: 45% of households are projected to run short of money if they retire at 65.
The fear is just as widespread. In Allianz Life’s 2026 study, 67% of Americans said they worry more about running out of money than about dying, up from 57% in 2022.
2. Who runs short
| Group | Projected to run short |
|---|---|
| All households, retiring at 65 | 45% |
| Baby boomers | 52% |
| Gen X | 47% |
| Millennials | 44% |
| Gen Z | 37% |
| Public-sector workers | 29% |
| Not in a workplace savings plan | 57% |
| 20+ years in a workplace savings plan | 21% |
3. What changes the odds
- Retire at 67 instead of 65: the share running short falls from 45% to 38%.
- Work until 70: it falls to 28%. See what one more year adds.
- Save in a plan for decades: 21% for 20+ years of contributions, against 57% for none.
- Plan to the right age. Most people plan for too short a life. See the longevity mistake.
4. Where federal retirees stand
A FERS retiree has three sources of income: the annuity, Social Security and the TSP. Two of them pay for life and rise with inflation, at least in part. That is why public workers run short far less often.
The risk that remains is the TSP: drawing too much early, or selling in a downturn. See sequence-of-returns risk and the life expectancy calculator.
Still building savings? Federal Warrior’s TSP projector shows where you’re heading. Worried about long-term care? Warrior Insure on private long-term care insurance. Drawing VA disability? Warrior Disability’s calculator adds it to your income.
5. Frequently asked questions
How many Americans will outlive their retirement savings?
About 45% of U.S. households are projected to run short of money if they retire at 65, according to Morningstar’s model of U.S. retirement outcomes, published in July 2024. Retiring at 67 lowers that to 38%, and retiring at 70 lowers it to 28%.
Are public employees less likely to run out of money?
Yes. Morningstar projects 29% of public-sector workers will run short, compared with 45% of households overall. Pensions are a big reason: they pay for life, however long you live.
Which generation is most at risk?
Baby boomers, at 52% in Morningstar’s model, followed by Gen X at 47%, millennials at 44% and Gen Z at 37%. Younger workers have more years of automatic enrollment in workplace savings plans ahead of them.
How many Americans fear running out of money?
67% said they worry more about running out of money than about dying, in Allianz Life’s 2026 Annual Retirement Study, up from 57% in 2022. Gen X was highest at 73%.
What lowers the risk of running out?
Working longer, contributing to a workplace plan for many years, and having income that lasts for life, such as a FERS or CSRS annuity. In Morningstar’s model, workers who contribute to a plan for 20 or more years have about a 21% chance of running short, against 57% for those not in a plan.