How long will $1 million last in retirement?
It’s the number that became shorthand for “enough” — but $1 million doesn’t come with an expiration date stamped on it. How long it lasts depends on four things you control or can estimate: how much you spend, what your money earns, how fast prices rise, and how much guaranteed income you have. Get those right and a million can last 40 years; get them wrong and it can be gone in 15. Here’s the real math — and a calculator that runs your own numbers.
1. The question everyone really asks
“Is a million dollars enough to retire?” is really two questions in a trench coat. The honest one underneath is: how long will it last before it runs out? And the frustrating-but-true answer is that the same $1 million can support a comfortable 40-year retirement for one person and leave another broke at 80 — depending entirely on the choices and conditions around it.
The good news is that the math isn’t mysterious. A million dollars lasting in retirement comes down to a tug-of-war between four forces: the size of your withdrawals, the return your investments earn, the inflation eating your purchasing power, and the guaranteed income that takes pressure off the portfolio. Understand those four and you can stop guessing.
Don’t ask whether $1 million is “enough.” Ask how many years it funds your spending, at your return and inflation, after your pension and Social Security do their part.
2. It comes down to four numbers
Every projection of how long your money lasts is built from the same four inputs. Change any one and the answer moves, sometimes dramatically:
| Input | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Annual spending | The biggest lever. The difference between withdrawing 4% and 6% of a million is the difference between “lasts decades” and “runs out.” |
| Investment return | What the balance earns while you draw it down. A 6% vs 4% return adds many years — but early losses hurt out of proportion (see sequence risk below). |
| Inflation | Forces your withdrawals to rise every year just to hold your lifestyle steady. The silent killer of long retirements. |
| Guaranteed income | Pension and Social Security cover part of your spending, so the portfolio funds only the gap — the single biggest extender of all. |
3. The 4% rule and the 2026 update
The most famous answer to “how much can I safely withdraw” is the 4% rule, introduced by financial planner William Bengen in 1994. It says you can withdraw 4% of your starting balance in year one — $40,000 on a million — then increase that dollar amount with inflation each year, and historically your money lasted at least 30 years. It’s a clean, useful starting point.
But it’s a starting point, not a law. Recent forward-looking research from Morningstar pegs the safe starting rate a touch lower — about 3.9% for 2026, or roughly $39,000 on a million — for a 90% chance of lasting a 30-year retirement, before counting Social Security. The takeaway isn’t that 4% is “wrong”; it’s that the safe rate drifts with market conditions, and somewhere around 3.5–4.5% is the zone most retirees should anchor to. We dig into this in our deep dive on the 4% rule’s 2026 replacement.
4. Why inflation is the silent killer
Here’s the trap that fools people running quick mental math: they imagine withdrawing the same amount every year. You won’t. To keep the same lifestyle, your withdrawals have to grow with prices — and that escalation is what quietly drains the account.
At just 3% inflation, a $50,000 spending need today becomes about $90,000 in 20 years and over $120,000 in 30 years. So the portfolio that looked rock-solid funding $50,000 a year is, by your late 80s, being asked to cough up more than twice that. The back half of a long retirement pulls far larger sums than the front half — which is exactly why a balance can look bottomless at first and then fall off a cliff. Any honest calculator must assume rising withdrawals; the one below does.
5. How long will your money last?
Enter your balance, what you plan to spend in today’s dollars, and your assumptions for return and inflation. The calculator escalates your spending with inflation each year and shows how long the money lasts — with a chart of the balance drawing down over time.
Your numbers
A simplified projection using a fixed return every year — real markets vary, and a bad early stretch (sequence risk) can shorten this materially. Excludes taxes and guaranteed income. Educational only, not advice.
6. The federal advantage: your pension
Most “how long will $1 million last” articles quietly assume the million is all you have. For a federal retiree, it usually isn’t — and that changes everything. Your FERS pension and Social Security form a guaranteed, partly inflation-aware income floor that covers a chunk of your spending for life. The portfolio only has to fund the gap between your spending and that floor.
The effect is dramatic. A private-sector retiree spending $70,000 with no pension might draw the full $70,000 from savings — a punishing 7% on a million. A federal retiree spending the same $70,000 with a $45,000 pension-and-Social-Security floor draws just $25,000 from the TSP — a gentle 2.5% that can last essentially forever. Same million, wildly different lifespan, because the pension is doing most of the work. When you run the calculator above, enter only the spending your portfolio must cover, not your whole budget.
Subtract your pension and Social Security from your spending first. Your TSP only has to fund what’s left — which is why a federal million lasts far longer than a private-sector million.
7. The wildcard: sequence risk
The calculator above uses a steady return every year, which is perfect for understanding the mechanics — but real markets don’t cooperate. The order in which good and bad years arrive matters enormously when you’re withdrawing. A market crash in your first few retirement years, while you’re selling to fund spending, can shorten your money’s lifespan far more than the same crash a decade later.
This is sequence-of-returns risk, and it’s why two retirees with identical average returns can end up with wildly different outcomes. It’s also why strategies like holding a cash buffer (the bucket strategy) and staying flexible with spending matter so much: they keep you from being a forced seller at the bottom. Treat any single-number projection as a midpoint, not a promise.
8. Five ways to make it last longer
| Move | Effect |
|---|---|
| Spend flexibly | Trimming withdrawals in down years is the single most powerful way to avoid depletion — far more than chasing returns. |
| Delay Social Security | Waiting toward 70 raises your guaranteed floor, shrinking what the portfolio must cover for the rest of your life. |
| Hold a cash buffer | One to two years of spending in cash lets you avoid selling stocks in a downturn, blunting sequence risk. |
| Mind the taxes | Smart withdrawal order means more of each dollar reaches your pocket, so you withdraw less. |
| Keep some growth | A 30-year retirement needs stocks to outrun inflation — an all-cash portfolio is the fastest way to run dry. |
9. Frequently asked questions
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
It depends mainly on how much you spend, what your investments earn, and inflation. As a rough guide, $1 million withdrawn at an inflation-adjusted 4% a year (about $40,000 to start) tends to last roughly 30 years or more under typical assumptions. Withdraw 5% ($50,000) and it often lasts around 30 years; withdraw 6% ($60,000) and it can run dry in the low 20s; withdraw 8% and it may last under 20 years. Lower spending, higher returns, and lower inflation all stretch it further. Social Security and any pension dramatically extend it, because they reduce how much you need to pull from the million.
What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule, introduced by financial planner William Bengen in 1994, says that withdrawing 4% of your starting portfolio in year one and adjusting that dollar amount for inflation each year afterward has historically lasted at least 30 years. On a $1 million portfolio that’s $40,000 in the first year. It’s a useful starting benchmark, not a guarantee, and it doesn’t account for your taxes, your specific lifestyle, or a market crash early in retirement. Recent research from Morningstar puts the safe starting rate a bit lower, around 3.9% for 2026, given current return and inflation expectations.
How much can I safely withdraw from $1 million?
A common safe range is roughly 3.5% to 4.5% of your starting balance, adjusted for inflation each year. Morningstar’s 2026 research suggests about 3.9% — around $39,000 on $1 million — as the highest starting rate with a 90% chance of lasting a 30-year retirement, excluding Social Security. The right number for you depends on your time horizon, how flexible your spending is, and how much guaranteed income you have. Flexible retirees who can trim spending in down markets can often start higher, while those who need a fixed, predictable income should lean more conservative.
How does inflation affect how long my money lasts?
Inflation is the quiet force that drains a portfolio, because the dollar amount you withdraw has to keep rising just to maintain the same lifestyle. At 3% inflation, a $50,000 annual need grows to about $90,000 in 20 years and over $120,000 in 30 years. That escalating withdrawal is why a portfolio that looks like it should last forever at today’s spending level can actually run dry — the later years pull far larger sums than the early ones. Any honest projection of how long your money lasts has to assume your spending climbs with inflation, which is exactly what the calculator on this page does.
Does a federal pension change how long my savings last?
Enormously. A FERS pension and Social Security form a guaranteed, inflation-aware income floor that covers part of your spending for life, which means your portfolio only has to fund the gap. If your essentials are largely covered by your pension and Social Security, you might withdraw far less than 4% from your savings — or even leave them mostly invested for growth and legacy. That’s why a federal retiree with a $1 million TSP can often make it last much longer than a private-sector retiree with the same balance but no pension: the pension is doing a large share of the work.