Social Security 2027: every number that changes on October 14

1. The 2027 table: final, projected, and pending

Every “~” figure is a projection from the 2026 Trustees Report or the wage-index trend, not an SSA figure. The wage-indexed items depend on the 2025 national average wage, which SSA computes in the fall; the COLA-indexed items depend on the September CPI-W. All become final on October 14.

2. The taxable wage base

The wage base is the ceiling on earnings subject to the 6.2% Social Security tax; Medicare’s 1.45% has no ceiling. It rises each year with the national average wage index, two years lagged, so the 2027 figure reflects wage growth through 2025. The 2026 Trustees Report projects $190,200, a $5,700 increase. In each of the last two years the final figure came in above the Trustees’ projection ($184,500 against a projected $183,600 for 2026; $176,100 against $174,900 for 2025), so a final 2027 number a few hundred to a thousand dollars higher would follow the pattern.

For federal employees this matters in three places. GS-14 and GS-15 employees in high-locality areas earn above the cap and see Social Security withholding stop partway through the year; the stopping point moves later. Reemployed annuitants and retirees with second careers pay the tax on the same schedule. And every year of covered earnings at or near the cap raises the average indexed monthly earnings behind the maximum benefit, which is why the maximum at FRA rises faster than the COLA.

3. The earnings test, and the FERS supplement

The retirement earnings test withholds benefits from people who claim before full retirement age and keep working. Two limits apply. For a beneficiary under FRA for the whole year, $1 is withheld for every $2 of earnings above the lower limit, projected at ~$25,200 for 2027. In the year the beneficiary reaches FRA, $1 is withheld for every $3 above the higher limit, projected at ~$67,200, and only earnings before the month of FRA count. From the month FRA is reached, the test ends and withheld benefits are credited back through a recomputed benefit. See the earnings-test trap for how the withholding and the later credit work.

The federal angle is the FERS Special Retirement Supplement. By statute it is reduced under the same lower limit and the same $1-for-$2 rule once the retiree reaches MRA. OPM applies the reduction from July, based on the prior year’s earnings reported on the annual survey. So the 2027 limit governs the supplement reduction applied in July 2028 for earnings during calendar 2027. A retiree under 62 earning $30,000 in 2027 against a ~$25,200 limit loses about $2,400 of supplement the following year. Earnings from federal retirement pay, TSP withdrawals, investments, and pensions do not count; only wages and self-employment income do.

4. Full retirement age reaches 67 for good

The 1983 amendments raised full retirement age from 65 to 67 in steps by birth year. The 1959 cohort, with an FRA of 66 and 10 months, reached it between November 2025 and October 2026. The 1960 cohort turns 67 during 2027, and every cohort after it has the same FRA. From 2027 onward, then, the claiming arithmetic is the same for everyone approaching it: 70% of the full benefit at 62, 100% at 67, 124% at 70. See full retirement age 67 in 2027 for what the last step means for the 1960 cohort specifically, and the TSP bridge for the case for waiting.

5. The COLA and the maximum benefit

The COLA is tracked on its own page, the 2027 COLA tracker, updated September 11 and October 14. The running figure with one month in is 3.1%; the realistic range is 3.1% to 3.6%. It applies to all Social Security benefits and to the SSI federal payment standard from January 2027.

The maximum benefit is different: it reflects a full 35-year career at or above the wage base, so it rises with both the COLA and the wage base history. At FRA it was $4,152 a month in 2026 and should land near $4,300 in 2027; at 70, roughly $5,350. Almost no federal employee reaches the maximum, because FERS-covered service earned below the cap for most of a career, and because the years of CSRS service (for those who have them) are not covered at all. The Social Security Fairness Act ended the Windfall Elimination Provision for those retirees; see the WEP/GPO repeal.

6. The numbers that never change

Three figures in the program are not indexed, and each one is a quiet tax increase every year:

• The benefit-taxation thresholds, $25,000 single and $32,000 joint of provisional income for the 50% tier and $34,000 / $44,000 for the 85% tier, have been fixed since 1984 and 1993. Every COLA pushes more retirees over them. See the Social Security tax surprise.
• The earnings-test withholding ratios, $1 for $2 and $1 for $3, are statutory.
• The payroll tax rates, 6.2% and 1.45%, and the 0.9% additional Medicare tax threshold of $200,000 single / $250,000 joint, are statutory and unindexed.

7. What to do before and after October 14

• If you receive the FERS supplement and work: plan 2027 earnings against ~$25,200, and remember it is the 2027 limit that governs 2027 earnings, whatever the survey date.
• If you are deciding when to claim: nothing in the October announcement changes the claiming math except the COLA base; the reduction and credit percentages are fixed. Decide on the merits.
• If you earn above the cap: expect withholding to run a few more days into the year; adjust estimated payments if you are self-employed.
• On October 14: this page is updated with the final figures the same morning; the COLA tracker, the retirement calendar, and the IRMAA preview are updated together.

8. Update log

9. Frequently asked questions