The 2028 COLA, tracked monthly
Updated after every CPI release.
Most retirees means Social Security, CSRS and military retired pay. This is an estimate, not a forecast: it moves every month.
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1. Where the estimate stands
Until July 2027 data exists, the best guide is the 12-month inflation rate. CPI-W rose 3.8% in the year to October 2026. If prices keep rising at that pace, the 2028 COLA would land near 3.8%. Prices since the 2027 COLA quarter have already built in +0.7%. (The 12-month rate is measured from September 2025 and annualized; BLS published no October 2025 index.)
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Latest CPI-W (October 2026) | 331.147 |
| 2026 base (Jul–Sep average) | 328.746 |
| Built in since the base | +0.7% |
| 12-month inflation (CPI-W) | 3.8% |
| Running 2028 COLA estimate | 3.8% / FERS 2.8% |
The next update comes after BLS releases the November 2026 CPI, usually in the middle of the following month. All of this month’s figures, alongside TSP returns, are on Monthly Numbers.
2. What’s driving inflation
12-month price changes for the costs retirees feel most, led by gasoline at +37.4%.
| Category | 12 months | Through |
|---|---|---|
| All items (CPI-U) The headline inflation number | +3.6%* | Oct 2026 |
| Groceries Food at home | +2.0%* | Oct 2026 |
| Shelter Rent and owners’ equivalent rent | +3.1%* | Oct 2026 |
| Medical care Services and drugs | +1.7%* | Oct 2026 |
| Energy Gasoline, electricity, utility gas | +18.2%* | Oct 2026 |
| Gasoline All types | +37.4% | Oct 2026 |
* Measured from September 2025 and annualized; BLS published no October 2025 index.
The COLA uses CPI-W, the index for wage earners, not these categories directly. Medical care and shelter weigh more in a retiree’s budget than in CPI-W, which is why a COLA can trail what retirees actually pay. Protecting savings from inflation covers what you can do about it.
3. What it could mean in dollars
| Monthly check now | Most retirees (3.8%) | FERS, 62+ (2.8%) |
|---|---|---|
| $1,500 | +$57.00 | +$42.00 |
| $2,500 | +$95.00 | +$70.00 |
| $3,500 | +$133.00 | +$98.00 |
Before tax and before any Medicare Part B change, which usually takes part of the increase. The estimate will move, so treat these as a range, not a promise.
4. How the 2028 COLA is figured
The COLA is the rise in the average CPI-W for July, August and September 2027 over the same three months of 2026, rounded to the nearest tenth. The 2026 average, 328.746, is the same one that produced the 3.6% 2027 COLA.
| Month | CPI-W (1982–84 = 100) |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | 331.147 |
| September 2026 | 330.654 |
| August 2026 | 328.481 |
| July 2026 | 327.104 |
| June 2026 | 327.075 |
| May 2026 | 328.829 |
SSA announces the result in October 2027. It applies to Social Security, SSI, CSRS, CSRS Offset and military retired pay from December 1, 2027, paid in January 2028. The 2027 result and its math are on the 2027 COLA page.
5. Why FERS gets less
| COLA | FERS gets |
|---|---|
| 2.0% or less | The same |
| 2.1% to 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Above 3.0% | The COLA minus 1 point |
That’s 5 U.S.C. 8462. Regular FERS retirees get no COLA before 62; disability, survivor and special-provision annuitants get it at any age. FERS and CSRS COLAs explained has the full rules.
6. Update log
| Updated | Data | Estimate / FERS |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026 | October 2026 CPI-W 331.147 | 3.8% / 2.8% |
| Nov 8, 2026 | September 2026 CPI-W 330.654 | 3.9% / 2.9% |
7. Frequently asked questions
What is the 2028 COLA estimate?
Based on October 2026 inflation data, the running estimate is 3.8% for Social Security, CSRS and military retired pay, and 2.8% for FERS retirees 62 and older. It is an estimate until SSA announces the official COLA in October 2027.
When will the 2028 COLA be announced?
In October 2027, when BLS releases the September 2027 CPI. It takes effect December 1, 2027 and first shows up in January 2028 payments.
How is the 2028 COLA calculated?
It is the rise in the average CPI-W for July, August and September 2027 over the average for the same months of 2026, which was 328.746. The result is rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Why would FERS get less?
By law, FERS annuities get the full COLA only up to 2%. Between 2% and 3% FERS gets 2%, and above 3% FERS gets the COLA minus one point. Regular FERS retirees get no COLA before 62.
Estimate computed from BLS data released through Nov 10, 2026. It is not an official figure; SSA announces the 2028 COLA in October 2027.